"A child's learning is the function more of the characteristics of his classmates than those of the teacher." James Coleman, 1972

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

First Study on First Debate Impact Shows No Change in the Presidential Race

 How about this headline that actually matches what we find in the text that follows:  No change: Evaluating the short-term impact of the first presidential debate on voter preferences

Here is a brief clip from the new research:

The predominant pattern we see in the data is stability in voters’ preferences.Overall, 94% of those who chose Biden and 86% of those who chose Trump in our May survey still preferred the same candidate after the debate. There was a small rate of change from Biden to Trump or vice versa –less than 3% shifted in either direction. We observed more churn between those who favored either Biden or Trump and the “Other” category. About 4% of Biden’s and 6% of Trump’s supporters in the earlier wave shifted to “Other” post-debate. At the same time, 6% of “Other” shifted to Biden, and another 6% shifted to Trump.  

Will this research be reported on or even acknowledged by the New York Times

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