"A child's learning is the funtion more of the characteristics of his classmates than those of the teacher." James Coleman, 1972

Monday, March 14, 2011

News on the Wisconsin Recall Effort

Here are the topline results for the Daily Kos / Public Policy Polling surveys of all eight Republican-held state Senate districts targeted for recall. The polls were conducted March 11th, 12th and 13th. Among other questions, each of the eight surveys tested a "generic Democrat" against the named Republican incumbent.

Democrats need to win three of these eight districts in order to regain a majority in the Wisconsin state Senate. As it happens, Democrats currently lead in three districts:

Senator Dan Kapanke trails a generic Democrat 55-41
Senator Randy Hopper trails 49-44
Senator Luther Olsen trails 49-47

In two other districts, incumbent Republicans are under 50%, and should face competitive elections:

Senator Rob Cowles leads 45-43
Senator Sheila Harsdorf leads 48-44

The Republican incumbent is favored in another district, but still isn't safe:

Senator Alberta Darling leads 52-44

Republicans are strongly favored in two deep red districts:

Senator Mary Lazich leads 56-34
Senator Glenn Grothman leads 60-32

All in all, Democrats have a solid chance to retake the Wisconsin state Senate through the recall elections. However, the task ahead of them is far from a slam dunk.

The polls had very small margins of error, due to an extremely strong survey response rate. Full analysis, survey results, crosstabs and data will be posted on Daily Kos at 11 a.m. eastern, Tuesday.

In solidarity,
Chris Bowers
Campaign Director, Daily Kos

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